2028 U.S. Olympic baseball roster projection: How MLB players could shape the team (2024)

By Eno Sarris, Brittany Ghiroli, and Stephen J. Nesbitt

Recently, conversation in major-league clubhouses has turned to an event still four years in the future: the 2028 Olympics in Los Angeles.

On Monday, Texas Rangers reliever David Robertson jokingly declared he and 37-year-old closer Kirby Yates are planning to pitch for Team USA in 2028. That drew a chuckle from teammates Jacob deGrom and Corey Seager. Robertson, one of the oldest active players in the majors, smiled and said, “I’ll only be 44, so I think I’ve got a chance.”

Robertson and Team USA won silver at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, when only players who were not on 40-man rosters were eligible to compete. There’s momentum from MLB owners and players alike to make all major leaguers eligible in 2028 when baseball returns to the Olympics. “I would love to be part of that,” Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper said earlier this summer. “The Olympics is something you dream about playing in.”

Robertson came into the 2020 Olympics off two lost seasons due to elbow surgery. He knew it might be the last time he pitched and figured this wasn’t a bad way to go out. Robertson had two saves in qualifying and two more in the Olympics. Afterward, he signed with the Tampa Bay Rays. He pitched in the postseason that fall. The Olympics helped revive his career.

“I would do it again in a heartbeat,” Robertson said. “I had a blast.”

The United States has won Olympic gold only once (in six tries) and won the World Baseball Classic only once (in five tries). It will need all the best Americans on the diamond to contend for gold in Los Angeles.

So, we’ve picked a 26-player Team USA roster for the 2028 Games. These selections were based upon rigorous statistical analysis, gut feel, heated debate and (more than anything) five-year ZiPS projections provided by Fangraphs writer Dan Szymborski.

All charts include player ages as of 2028 and stats from 2028 ZiPS projections.

Catcher

Rutschman is a West Coast kid, a former No. 1 pick and a two-time All-Star. He’s an easy choice for the first player on this Team USA roster. (He’s already dominated in red, white and blue, too, batting .355 for the Collegiate National Team in 2018.) The switch-hitting Rutschman should still be in prime form in 2028, even if he’s not catching every day of the week.

As exciting as it would be to pencil Padres super prospect Ethan Salas into this roster — he’ll still only be 22 in 2028 and would likely be eligible for both the U.S. and Venezuelan teams — we went with O’Hoppe as Rutschman’s backup. The Angels’ “captain” doesn’t have the defensive prowess of Patrick Bailey or Cal Raleigh, who received serious consideration for his prodigious power and penchant for late-game heroics, but O’Hoppe is the youngest of that trio and has shown big upside at the plate.

Also considered: Patrick Bailey, Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, Ethan Salas

Infield

Harper has been incredibly vocal about wanting to play in the Olympics and while he certainly won’t be at the most productive stage of his career in 2028, he is a fierce competitor who has a knack for coming up in big situations. How quickly will he decline as he ages? That seems to be the biggest factor. Turner, who will be the same age, falls into that same category. Would he or Mookie Betts age better than we think and be a better option than say Holliday, who everyone thinks could be a superstar, in four years?

Witt, Jr. and Henderson are projected to be two of the best players in baseball by 2028 and both could hold those respective titles much sooner. Lewis’ health has been a concern and both he and Winn could easily be up for debate with a guy like Neto by the time LA rolls around. Westburg and Mayo are both projected to be superstars by 2028, only furthering belief that –provided they figure out pitching– the Baltimore Orioles should be good for a very, very long time.

Also considered: Zach Neto, Austin Riley, Jordan Westburg, Alec Bohm, Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Coby Mayo

Outfield

In Jackson Merrill, we have the perfect confluence of age and demonstrated production on the field. It’s easy to put him out there in center at 25 years old in 2028, since he’s already shown a well-rounded game with power, speed, and the ability to make contact. Kyle Tucker is in his peak with a similarly versatile game, and will only be 31 in four years. After those two, it gets a little trickier.

With our selection of James Wood, we’re dreaming on his loud tools with a small sample of strong results, but any of Wood, Wyatt Langford, Colton Cowser, or Riley Greene could grow over the next four years and push our veterans aside (just check out the four-year projections below). Mookie Betts sits at the other extreme, a current star who will be 35 when the Olympics come around again. It seems like he has what it takes to age gracefully – he makes great contact, and is a five-tool beast right now – but there’s only one player over 35 that looks guaranteed to be above-average in the league this year. Age comes for everyone.

Also considered: Wyatt Langford, Colton Cowser, Riley Greene, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Steven Kwan

Designated hitter

Is this recency bias for a guy getting treated like Barry Bonds right now? Probably somewhat. Like Harper, though, Judge is a star who could bring eyeballs to the screen and bridge the gap between the older stars and the younger group that will comprise most of this roster. Judge will be 36 at the next Olympics, thus the oldest position player on the roster. While its widely believed that a player’s baserunning and defense decline quickest, we’ve seen sluggers who hit for power in their mid 30s and beyond. Judge’s presence in the lineup could still serve as a threat, provided he’s healthy enough to play. If not, it’s easy to see the team opt for one of infielders/outfielders we left off to give the DH role some versatility. Walker could evolve into that guy and Buxton has already flashed his potential, though his injury history is perhaps the most concerning of this entire group.

Also considered: Christian Yelich, Christian Walker, Triston Casas, Byron Buxton

Starting rotation

Right now, this looks like a nasty rotation, full of fire and ice. You’ve got Paul Skenes sitting 100, Spencer Strider with maybe the two most dominant single pitches in any arsenal, a front-runner for the NL Cy Young this year, maybe the league’s best command from George Kirby, and then a horse unlike any other in Logan Webb, who leads the league in innings over the last three seasons. This would be a dominant rotation.

But don’t write it down in pen. Of the top ten pitchers in the league four seasons ago, only two are still healthy and pitching in the big leagues right now. Two! That’s what injuries have meant for the game. We even have a hurt guy in our rotation right now. One of those ten that is still healthy and pitching well right now – Luis Castillo – may be an argument for including pitchers like Webb, Kirby, and Logan Gilbert because they’ve likely shown the ability to stay healthy.

The reality of the situation is that this will be the hardest portion of the roster to figure out. Teams will want to protect themselves from losing an important arm, and may choose to emphasize any nagging pain in order to keep their pitcher out of the games. We’ve seen this even with WBC teams in the past. In 2028, the most enthusiastic and healthy pitchers (young or old) will advocate for their own inclusion, and it’ll be pretty tough to figure out who those players are four years out. Might even be tough to figure out in 2027.

Bullpen

Trying to forecast which flamethrowers will still be pitching effectively four years from now is a fool’s errand, but we landed a balanced bullpen that as of now looks hellacious. Though we could have filled an entire pitching staff with nasty starters left out of the rotation — like Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease — we limited ourselves to Burnes, Ragans and Greene.

Greene, the Reds’ All-Star starter, is a Los Angeles native who won gold for Team USA at the Baseball World Cup at both the Under-15 and Under-18 levels. “To be able to do it on an Olympic platform,” he said, “would be unbelievable.” There you have it. He’s in! If Greene’s heater sits 98 mph as a starter, just imagine him cooking in a one-inning outing out of the ‘pen.

For the “actual relievers” portion of the roster, we’ve tapped the hardest-throwing man in baseball — Miller — as well as two other current closers, the righty Williams and the lefty Hader, and a likely future closer in Kerkering. Considering how emotional Kerkering’s dad, a retired Marine, was when he debuted for the Phillies last fall, seeing him pitch for Team USA would be something special.

Also considered: Tyler Glasnow, Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Logan Gilbert, Zac Gallen, Ben Joyce, Ryan Helsley, Griffin Jax, Pete Fairbanks, Tanner Scott, Clay Holmes, Jackson Jobe, Noah Schultz

Below are the projected top 10 position players and starters in 2028 by ZiPS. Projecting is a tough game, and projecting four years out is even harder, but these lists do provide a good sense of how age and production could change by the time the Olympics come around again.

Position Players:

Pitchers:

— The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans contributed to this story.

(Top photo of Henderson, Skenes and Witt: Getty; G Fiume, Orlando Ramirez, Nic Antaya)